Beshore on base rate analysis

Assume you’re only going to be mediocre, then explore what business and life look like if that’s true.

Omg, such a great quote! I have been struggling with the concept of “base rate analysis”, and this makes it really clear to me. More specific to the topic, he says “Picking your field is arguably more important to your success than your current skill and future capacity. In some segments of business, everyone makes lots of money and the very best do outrageously well. In other areas, even the very best often declare bankruptcy. It’s a base rate analysis.” In data science, this is called normalizing the data.

That being said, over-strategizing is a very real danger. For example, base rate analysis may lead to good business decisions, and Tyler Cohen’s “Age of Deferment” (don’t even try to be the best because it’s impossible) may be “true”, but I think there is maybe a bit more to life 🙂 .



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